Sam Altman's Vision of AI in 2025: A Leap of Faith?

Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, has been blogging since 2013, long before his foray into AI. His blog, titled simply "Sam Altman," reflects his journey from startup mentor at YCombinator to AI visionary. Initially, his posts covered topics like B2B tools and UFOs, with no mention of AI. However, his tone shifted dramatically in his 2025 post, "The Gentle Singularity," where he proclaimed, "We are past the event horizon; the takeoff has started," suggesting humanity is on the brink of creating digital superintelligence. Despite his messianic rhetoric, current scientific evidence suggests we are far from achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). While AI models excel in processing vast amounts of information, they often fail in reasoning and are prone to hallucinations, causing real-world harm. Altman's predictions, such as robots performing real-world tasks by 2027 and space colonization by 2035, are speculative and rely heavily on caveats like "likely" and "maybe." Altman also addressed the environmental impact of AI, revealing that a ChatGPT query uses about 0.34 watt-hours of energy and 0.000085 gallons of water. However, these figures lack context, as they don't account for the massive energy required to train AI models. Researchers like Sasha Luccioni have criticized the secrecy surrounding AI's environmental footprint, urging transparency. Altman's reluctance to disclose full data raises questions about OpenAI's commitment to sustainability. The article concludes by questioning whether Altman is building a company or a religion, highlighting the tension between his visionary claims and the practical challenges of AI development.